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You're paying 11.5x next year's earnings, which gets you an earnings yield of 8.7%. The compensation for BABA is pretty clear. What is Alibaba likely to be worth in 2022? To understand where BABA may be headed, let's first look at the compensation the stock offers investors in terms of earnings yield and earnings growth, and then second, look at the risks. Similarly, in the financial markets, investors tend to underestimate the risk of highly valued growth stocks based on volatility while overestimating the risk of value stocks, and areas of the high-yield bond market offer return-free risk. For a real-world example, most consumers who shop based on vehicle crash test ratings fail to realize that they're 5x more likely to die in a crash in a small car than a large SUV (crash ratings puzzlingly compare against similar size vehicles, not against alternatives). To paraphrase Buffett and Munger here–Is Alibaba a riskier investment now for half the price it used to trade for, or was it riskier before? I'd say the latter. Warren Buffett has famously held that volatility is a poor measure of long-term risk, while his partner, Charlie Munger, is invested in Alibaba and recently doubled down into the bear market in the stock. Investors who can't resist earning some carry while taking hidden risks often find themselves in trouble as well. Bears might argue that the worst is still to come, but if the underlying business continues to grow, Alibaba stock has a plausible pathway to $500 in 5 years.Īlibaba stock does have its share of macro and micro risk, and it's not as if the stock has gone down for no reason.īut there's evidence that without the right education, humans are inherently bad at assessing danger/risk, particularly those with long tails. the market's perception of the company) and barely at all from a change in business fundamentals. In fairness, I thought BABA stock was a good deal in May (the stock is down over 40% percent since then), but what's interesting is that the change in price has come almost entirely from valuation (i.e. With these in mind, I believe the maximum level of pessimism now reached in Alibaba's stock offers sharply asymmetric upside last seen in oil stocks during the pandemic and seen before in banks in 2009 and tech in 2003. BABA's P/E ratio is among the lowest of any growth stock in the market. Alibaba trades for a mere 13x current fiscal year earnings and 11.5x next year's earnings and is expected to resume growing earnings at a double-digit annual rate, surpassing last year's peak in earnings. I believe these fears are misunderstood, and that investors are misunderstanding the nature of the risk in Alibaba stock. Individual investors have dumped Alibaba stock due to widely circulated fears–that China will nationalize Alibaba, that Alibaba's ADR structure is a fraud, that Alibaba's books cannot be trusted, and that American regulators will de-list Alibaba, causing the stock to plummet even further. Western institutions that control passive fund flows are eschewing Chinese stocks due to politics and ESG ( Environmental, Social, and Governance ) concerns. Led by the decline in Alibaba ( NYSE: BABA) Chinese tech stocks are under siege. Philiphotographer/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images What Is the Future of Alibaba Stock? To be able to download YouTube videos, please get the special build from the developer’s website. Please, note that this version of Folx does not support downloading videos from YouTube. 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This wine is impressively fresh and intense, with an understated brilliance that sets it apart from more exuberant Sauvignons. The region’s king variety, Sauvignon blanc, is beloved for its pungent, aromatic character with notes of exotic tropical fruit, freshly cut grass and green bell pepper along with a refreshing streak of stony minerality. Cloudy Bay put New Zealand wine on the map. Since David Hohnen of renowned Cape Mentelle in Western Australia launched his show stopping Cloudy Bay Sauvignon in the 1980s, wine drinkers have been in awe of its charm. At the northern tip of New Zealand’s South Island, the vineyards of Marlborough benefit from well-draining, stony soils, a dry, sunny climate and wide temperature fluctuations between day and night, a phenomenon that supports a perfect balance between berry ripeness and acidity. Despite some common generalizations, which could be fairly justified given that Marlborough is responsible for 90% of New Zealand's Sauvignon blanc production, the wines from this region are actually anything but homogenous. An icon and leading region of New Zealand's distinctive style of Sauvignon blanc, Marlborough has a unique terroir, making it ideal for high quality grape production (of many varieties). Grapes from eight estates in Rapaura, Fairhall, Renwick and Brancott provide the. I guess a bit like trying to explain philosophy to you in Greek when you only understand English. Elephants dealt with, let’s move on.īut, before launching into this story, I thought to myself “What do most people really even know about electric powered vehicles, never mind electric powered boats?” Therefore I’m going to start with some basics, believing that unless one understands the terminology, one cannot appreciate the product and what that product can and cannot do. I have been following electric vehicle development over the past decade, and ever since I picked up the book by Ashlee Vance about Elon Musk, I discovered that whoever you talk to, the first two issues of concern (our two elephants in the room) are “how far can I go on a full charge” and “where do I fill up when my fuel (batteries) get low?”īy the end of this article, those two elephants of concern will be reduced in size to a couple of wee mice in the room. These two elephants are “Range Anxiety” and “Fuel Filling”. In part one we will delve into the background of this phenomena and in part two we will look more closely at Kiwi companies who are at the forefront of this technology.įirst off, let’s address the two big elephants in the room when it comes to discussing electric propulsion, whether land based (electric vehicles) or water based (electric boats), which is the theme of this article. In the first of a two part series we look at the rapid evolution of the Inboard Electric Boat Propulsion phenomena in the recreational boating (and to a degree commercial) marine industry both here in New Zealand and overseas. Disguise players will now have their stats scrambled.Spectate Command has been updated to be more smooth.
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